Skånland 2–0 Skeid II: Result & Stats

Skånland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Skeid II

7/30/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 13Skånland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Skånland40%

×Draw21%

Skeid II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkånlandExpected goals in this matchSkeid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.92

Skånland

1.96

Skeid II

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

1.84

2.00

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Skånland

1.55

Skeid II

1.84

allows per match

Skånland

2.00

Skeid II

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skånland+0.00on par

Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skånland ↓

Skeid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Skånland or draw

61%

Skånland or Skeid II

79%

Draw or Skeid II

60%

Winning margin

Skånland wins by 2+

22%

Skeid II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Skånland 1+ goals

86%

Skånland 2+ goals

58%

Skånland 3+ goals

31%

Skeid II 1+ goals

85%

Skeid II 2+ goals

57%

Skeid II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Skånland (draw refunded)

51%

Skeid II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skånland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skånland attack 1.55 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.96

Skeid II attack 1.84 + Skånland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Skånland scores more

40%

level

21%

Skeid II scores more

39%

Skånland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Skånland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff