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Skånland vs Melbo IL — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skånland
Skånland
CANC
14:00
Melbo IL
Melbo IL
8/15/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 2Skånland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skånland40%
×Draw24%
Melbo IL36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skånland
1.61
Melbo IL
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Skånland
1.55
Melbo IL
1.00

allows per match

Skånland
2.00
Melbo IL
1.67

finishing

Skånland+0.00on par
Melbo IL+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skånland ↓

Melbo IL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Skånland or draw
64%
Skånland or Melbo IL
76%
Draw or Melbo IL
60%

Winning margin

Skånland wins by 2+
20%
Melbo IL wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Skånland 1+ goals
80%
Skånland 2+ goals
48%
Skånland 3+ goals
22%
Melbo IL 1+ goals
78%
Melbo IL 2+ goals
44%
Melbo IL 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Skånland (draw refunded)
53%
Melbo IL (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skånland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Melbo IL away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skånland attack 1.55 + Melbo IL defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Melbo IL attack 1.00 + Skånland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Skånland scores more
40%
level
24%
Melbo IL scores more
36%

Skånland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Skånland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Skånland host Melbo IL

August 15, 2020: Skånland take on Melbo IL in 3. Division - Girone 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Skånland host Melbo IL at Skånland kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.