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Skånland vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skånland
Skånland
FT
3 – 1
KFUM II
KFUM II
5/7/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 5Skånland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skånland45%
×Draw22%
KFUM II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skånland
1.89
KFUM II
1.57

Skånland creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skånland
1.55
KFUM II
1.15

allows per match

Skånland
2.00
KFUM II
2.23

finishing

Skånland+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skånland ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Skånland or draw
68%
Skånland or KFUM II
78%
Draw or KFUM II
55%

Winning margin

Skånland wins by 2+
25%
KFUM II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Skånland 1+ goals
85%
Skånland 2+ goals
56%
Skånland 3+ goals
29%
KFUM II 1+ goals
79%
KFUM II 2+ goals
46%
KFUM II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Skånland (draw refunded)
58%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skånland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skånland attack 1.55 + KFUM II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

KFUM II attack 1.15 + Skånland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skånland scores more
45%
level
22%
KFUM II scores more
32%

Skånland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Skånland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Skånland 3–1 KFUM II

Skånland beat KFUM II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Skånland kunstgress in Evenskjer.