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Skånland vs Junkeren — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skånland
Skånland
CANC
14:00
Junkeren
Junkeren
10/24/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Skånland20%
×Draw18%
Junkeren63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skånland
1.49
Junkeren
2.71

Junkeren creates 82% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Skånland
1.55
Junkeren
3.43

allows per match

Skånland
2.00
Junkeren
1.43

finishing

Skånland+0.00on par
Junkeren+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skånland ↓

Junkeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Skånland or draw
37%
Skånland or Junkeren
82%
Draw or Junkeren
80%

Winning margin

Skånland wins by 2+
8%
Junkeren wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Skånland 1+ goals
77%
Skånland 2+ goals
44%
Skånland 3+ goals
19%
Junkeren 1+ goals
93%
Junkeren 2+ goals
75%
Junkeren 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Skånland (draw refunded)
24%
Junkeren (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skånland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Junkeren away — creates 3.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skånland attack 1.55 + Junkeren defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

Junkeren attack 3.43 + Skånland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Skånland scores more
20%
level
18%
Junkeren scores more
63%

Junkeren at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Skånland host Junkeren

October 24, 2020: Skånland take on Junkeren in 3. Division - Girone 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.