Skånland 3–1 Finnsnes: Result & Stats

Skånland

FT

3 – 1

Finnsnes

9/5/2021

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 5Skånland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skånland58%

×Draw20%

Finnsnes22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkånlandExpected goals in this matchFinnsnes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.42

Skånland

2.36

Finnsnes

1.42

Skånland creates 66% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

1.55

creates per match

0.83

2.00

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Skånland

1.55

Finnsnes

0.83

allows per match

Skånland

2.00

Finnsnes

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skånland+0.00on par

Finnsnes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skånland ↓

Finnsnes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Skånland or draw

78%

Skånland or Finnsnes

80%

Draw or Finnsnes

42%

Winning margin

Skånland wins by 2+

37%

Finnsnes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Skånland 1+ goals

90%

Skånland 2+ goals

68%

Skånland 3+ goals

41%

Finnsnes 1+ goals

76%

Finnsnes 2+ goals

41%

Finnsnes 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Skånland (draw refunded)

72%

Finnsnes (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skånland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Finnsnes away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skånland attack 1.55 + Finnsnes defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.36

Finnsnes attack 0.83 + Skånland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Skånland scores more

58%

level

20%

Finnsnes scores more

22%

Skånland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Skånland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff