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Skallagrímur vs Úlfarnir — Cup 2019

Skallagrímur
Skallagrímur
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Úlfarnir
Úlfarnir
4/5/2025CupCup · 2nd RoundAkraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Skallagrímur32%
×Draw19%
Úlfarnir49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skallagrímur
2.00
Úlfarnir
2.50

Úlfarnir creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Skallagrímur
1.00
Úlfarnir
2.00

allows per match

Skallagrímur
3.00
Úlfarnir
3.00

finishing

Skallagrímur+0.00on par
Úlfarnir+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skallagrímur ↓

Úlfarnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Skallagrímur or draw
51%
Skallagrímur or Úlfarnir
81%
Draw or Úlfarnir
68%

Winning margin

Skallagrímur wins by 2+
16%
Úlfarnir wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Skallagrímur 1+ goals
86%
Skallagrímur 2+ goals
59%
Skallagrímur 3+ goals
32%
Úlfarnir 1+ goals
92%
Úlfarnir 2+ goals
71%
Úlfarnir 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Skallagrímur (draw refunded)
39%
Úlfarnir (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skallagrímur at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Úlfarnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skallagrímur attack 1.00 + Úlfarnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Úlfarnir attack 2.00 + Skallagrímur defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Skallagrímur scores more
32%
level
19%
Úlfarnir scores more
49%

Úlfarnir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Úlfarnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skallagrímur vs Úlfarnir

Skallagrímur and Úlfarnir drew 1-1 in Cup on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Akraneshöllin in Akranes.