Skallagrímur 2–3 KFR: Result & Stats | Cup

Skallagrímur

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

KFR

Unknown 90', 70'

Unknown 76', 36', 10'

4/2/2023

Cup · 1st RoundAkraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Skallagrímur37%

×Draw21%

KFR42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkallagrímurExpected goals in this matchKFR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

2.07

Skallagrímur

1.93

KFR

2.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

3.00

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Skallagrímur

1.00

KFR

1.14

allows per match

Skallagrímur

3.00

KFR

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skallagrímur+0.00on par

KFR+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skallagrímur ↓

KFR →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Skallagrímur or draw

58%

Skallagrímur or KFR

79%

Draw or KFR

63%

Winning margin

Skallagrímur wins by 2+

20%

KFR wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Skallagrímur 1+ goals

85%

Skallagrímur 2+ goals

57%

Skallagrímur 3+ goals

30%

KFR 1+ goals

87%

KFR 2+ goals

61%

KFR 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Skallagrímur (draw refunded)

47%

KFR (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Skallagrímur at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

KFR away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Skallagrímur attack 1.00 + KFR defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

KFR attack 1.14 + Skallagrímur defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Skallagrímur scores more

37%

level

21%

KFR scores more

42%

KFR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KFR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

36'

70'

76'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff