Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skallagrímur vs Ægir — Cup 2019

Skallagrímur
Skallagrímur
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ægir
Ægir
O. Stefansson 10'
S. Thorsteinsson 78'
B. Eythorsson 41'
A. Viktorsson 20'
4/6/2024CupCup · 1st RoundAkraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Skallagrímur10%
×Draw13%
Ægir78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skallagrímur
1.18
Ægir
3.37

Ægir creates 186% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Skallagrímur
1.00
Ægir
3.73

allows per match

Skallagrímur
3.00
Ægir
1.36

finishing

Skallagrímur+0.00on par
Ægir+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skallagrímur ↓

Ægir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Skallagrímur or draw
22%
Skallagrímur or Ægir
87%
Draw or Ægir
90%

Winning margin

Skallagrímur wins by 2+
3%
Ægir wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Skallagrímur 1+ goals
69%
Skallagrímur 2+ goals
33%
Skallagrímur 3+ goals
12%
Ægir 1+ goals
96%
Ægir 2+ goals
84%
Ægir 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Skallagrímur (draw refunded)
11%
Ægir (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skallagrímur at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Ægir away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skallagrímur attack 1.00 + Ægir defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ægir attack 3.73 + Skallagrímur defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Skallagrímur scores more
10%
level
13%
Ægir scores more
78%

Ægir at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
O. Stefansson
20'
A. Viktorsson
41'
B. Eythorsson
78'
S. Thorsteinsson
85'
A. Gudbjartsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skallagrímur vs Ægir

Ægir beat Skallagrímur 3-1 in Cup on April 6, 2024.

Goals: O. Stefansson (10'), A. Viktorsson (20'), B. Eythorsson (41'), S. Thorsteinsson (78').

The match was played at Akraneshöllin in Akranes.