Skála 1–1 B68: Result & Stats | Meistaradeildin

Skála

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

B68

Carlos Ferreira 82'

B. Jensen 19'

7/3/2024

Meistaradeildin · Round 16Undir Mýruhjalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Skála43%

×Draw23%

B6833%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkálaExpected goals in this matchB68

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.47

Skála

1.70

B68

1.47

Skála creates 16% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 75 away

1.24

creates per match

1.07

1.86

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Skála

1.24

B68

1.07

allows per match

Skála

1.86

B68

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skála+0.00on par

B68+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skála ↓

B68 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Skála or draw

67%

Skála or B68

77%

Draw or B68

57%

Winning margin

Skála wins by 2+

22%

B68 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Skála 1+ goals

82%

Skála 2+ goals

51%

Skála 3+ goals

24%

B68 1+ goals

77%

B68 2+ goals

43%

B68 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Skála (draw refunded)

56%

B68 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skála at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

B68 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skála attack 1.24 + B68 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

B68 attack 1.07 + Skála defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skála scores more

43%

level

23%

B68 scores more

33%

Skála at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

B. Jensen

41'

R. Samuelsen

46'

A. Jensen← R. Samuelsen

58'

B. Jacobsen

63'

Carlos Ferreira← D. Johansen

63'

H. Højgaard← B. Klein

63'

J. Joensen← B. Jensen

72'

A. Ellingsgaard← M. Nón

80'

V. Klein← B. Jakobsen

82'

84'

87'

88'

90+1'

M. Isaksen← D. Petersen

90+1'

T. Giedraitis← A. Pettersen

Skála

B68

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Poulsen

63'▲Carlos Ferreira←▼D. Johansen

72'▲A. Ellingsgaard←▼M. Nón

90+1'▲M. Isaksen←▼D. Petersen

Skála substitutes

FerreiraEllingsgaardIsaksenRasmussenFrederiksbergJohansenErnstsson

Manager: J. á Borg

46'▲A. Jensen←▼R. Samuelsen

63'▲H. Højgaard←▼B. Klein

63'▲J. Joensen←▼B. Jensen

80'▲V. Klein←▼B. Jakobsen

90+1'▲T. Giedraitis←▼A. Pettersen

B68 substitutes

JensenHøjgaardJoensenKleinGiedraitisJohansenDanielsen

Meistaradeildin: Skála 1–1 B68

Skála and B68 drew 1-1 in Meistaradeildin on July 3, 2024.

Goals: B. Jensen (19'), Carlos Ferreira (82').

The match was played at Undir Mýruhjalla in Skáli, Eysturoy.

Skála vs B68 — Meistaradeildin 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Meistaradeildin: Skála 1–1 B68