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Skála II vs KÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

Skála II
Skála II
FT
2 – 3
KÍ II
KÍ II
6/1/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 12Undir Mýruhjalla (Skáli, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skála II38%
×Draw23%
KÍ II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skála II
1.72
KÍ II
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 94 away

creates per match

Skála II
1.54
KÍ II
1.86

allows per match

Skála II
1.62
KÍ II
1.90

finishing

Skála II+0.00on par
KÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skála II ↓

KÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Skála II or draw
61%
Skála II or KÍ II
77%
Draw or KÍ II
62%

Winning margin

Skála II wins by 2+
20%
KÍ II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Skála II 1+ goals
82%
Skála II 2+ goals
51%
Skála II 3+ goals
25%
KÍ II 1+ goals
82%
KÍ II 2+ goals
52%
KÍ II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Skála II (draw refunded)
49%
KÍ II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skála II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

KÍ II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.90 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skála II attack 1.54 + KÍ II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.72

KÍ II attack 1.86 + Skála II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Skála II scores more
38%
level
23%
KÍ II scores more
39%

KÍ II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Skála II 2–3 KÍ II

KÍ II beat Skála II 3-2 in 1. Deild on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Undir Mýruhjalla (Skáli, Eysturoy).