Skála II 2–3 07 Vestur: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Skála II

FT

2 – 3

07 Vestur

10/4/2019

1. Deild · Round 25Undir Mýruhjalla (Skáli, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skála II34%

×Draw23%

07 Vestur43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skála IIExpected goals in this match07 Vestur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.75

Skála II

1.53

07 Vestur

1.75

07 Vestur creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

1.54

creates per match

1.89

1.62

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Skála II

1.54

07 Vestur

1.89

allows per match

Skála II

1.62

07 Vestur

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skála II+0.00on par

07 Vestur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skála II ↓

07 Vestur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Skála II or draw

57%

Skála II or 07 Vestur

77%

Draw or 07 Vestur

66%

Winning margin

Skála II wins by 2+

16%

07 Vestur wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Skála II 1+ goals

78%

Skála II 2+ goals

45%

Skála II 3+ goals

20%

07 Vestur 1+ goals

83%

07 Vestur 2+ goals

52%

07 Vestur 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Skála II (draw refunded)

44%

07 Vestur (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skála II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

07 Vestur away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skála II attack 1.54 + 07 Vestur defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

07 Vestur attack 1.89 + Skála II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skála II scores more

34%

level

23%

07 Vestur scores more

43%

07 Vestur at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "07 Vestur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff