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SKA Rostov vs Rotor Volgograd — Second League - Group 1 2020

SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
10/1/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SKA Rostov32%
×Draw26%
Rotor Volgograd42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Rostov
1.23
Rotor Volgograd
1.44

Rotor Volgograd creates 17% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 15 away

creates per match

SKA Rostov
1.67
Rotor Volgograd
2.00

allows per match

SKA Rostov
0.88
Rotor Volgograd
0.80

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw
58%
SKA Rostov or Rotor Volgograd
74%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
68%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+
14%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals
71%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
35%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
13%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
76%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
42%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
43%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.88 · 58 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.67 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rotor Volgograd attack 2.00 + SKA Rostov defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SKA Rostov scores more
32%
level
26%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
42%

Rotor Volgograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: SKA Rostov 1–0 Rotor Volgograd

SKA Rostov beat Rotor Volgograd 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Rostov-na-Donu.