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SKA Rostov vs Essentuki — Second League - Group 1 2020

SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Essentuki
Essentuki
10/17/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SKA Rostov76%
×Draw16%
Essentuki8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Rostov
2.36
Essentuki
0.62

SKA Rostov creates 281% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 44 away

creates per match

SKA Rostov
1.67
Essentuki
0.36

allows per match

SKA Rostov
0.88
Essentuki
3.05

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par
Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Essentuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw
92%
SKA Rostov or Essentuki
84%
Draw or Essentuki
24%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+
53%
Essentuki wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals
90%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
68%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
41%
Essentuki 1+ goals
46%
Essentuki 2+ goals
13%
Essentuki 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
90%
Essentuki (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.88 · 58 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.67 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.36

Essentuki attack 0.36 + SKA Rostov defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

SKA Rostov scores more
76%
level
16%
Essentuki scores more
8%

SKA Rostov at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Rostov vs Essentuki

SKA Rostov beat Essentuki 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Rostov-na-Donu.