SKA Rostov 3–0 Druzhba: Result & Stats

SKA Rostov

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Druzhba

4/27/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

SKA Rostov53%

×Draw26%

Druzhba21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKA RostovExpected goals in this matchDruzhba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.85

SKA Rostov

1.53

Druzhba

0.85

SKA Rostov creates 80% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 97 away

1.67

creates per match

0.82

0.88

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

SKA Rostov

1.67

Druzhba

0.82

allows per match

SKA Rostov

0.88

Druzhba

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Druzhba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Druzhba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw

79%

SKA Rostov or Druzhba

74%

Draw or Druzhba

47%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+

28%

Druzhba wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals

78%

SKA Rostov 2+ goals

45%

SKA Rostov 3+ goals

20%

Druzhba 1+ goals

57%

Druzhba 2+ goals

21%

Druzhba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)

72%

Druzhba (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.88 · 58 matches

Druzhba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.67 + Druzhba defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Druzhba attack 0.82 + SKA Rostov defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SKA Rostov scores more

53%

level

26%

Druzhba scores more

21%

SKA Rostov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff