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Druzhba vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Druzhba
Druzhba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
10/22/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Druzhba31%
×Draw25%
SKA Rostov45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druzhba
1.27
SKA Rostov
1.59

SKA Rostov creates 25% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 58 away

creates per match

Druzhba
1.35
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Druzhba
1.40
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Druzhba+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druzhba ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Druzhba or draw
55%
Druzhba or SKA Rostov
75%
Draw or SKA Rostov
69%

Winning margin

Druzhba wins by 2+
13%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Druzhba 1+ goals
72%
Druzhba 2+ goals
36%
Druzhba 3+ goals
14%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
80%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
47%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Druzhba (draw refunded)
41%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druzhba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druzhba attack 1.35 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Druzhba defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Druzhba scores more
31%
level
25%
SKA Rostov scores more
45%

SKA Rostov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Druzhba vs SKA Rostov

Druzhba beat SKA Rostov 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba in Maykop.