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Ska-Khabarovsk vs Tyumen — First League 2018

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tyumen
Tyumen
11/10/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk52%
×Draw27%
Tyumen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.42
Tyumen
0.80

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 77% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 58 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.43
Tyumen
0.79

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.81
Tyumen
1.40

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
79%
Ska-Khabarovsk or Tyumen
73%
Draw or Tyumen
48%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
26%
Tyumen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
76%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
41%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
17%
Tyumen 1+ goals
55%
Tyumen 2+ goals
19%
Tyumen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
71%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tyumen attack 0.79 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
52%
level
27%
Tyumen scores more
21%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-Khabarovsk vs Tyumen

Ska-Khabarovsk beat Tyumen 2-1 in First League on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).