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Ska-Khabarovsk vs Tambov — First League 2018

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tambov
Tambov
8/12/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk40%
×Draw29%
Tambov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.17
Tambov
1.00

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.43
Tambov
1.20

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.81
Tambov
0.90

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
69%
Ska-Khabarovsk or Tambov
71%
Draw or Tambov
60%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
17%
Tambov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
69%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
33%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
11%
Tambov 1+ goals
63%
Tambov 2+ goals
26%
Tambov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
56%
Tambov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Tambov away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Tambov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tambov attack 1.20 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
40%
level
29%
Tambov scores more
31%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-Khabarovsk vs Tambov

Tambov beat Ska-Khabarovsk 2-1 in First League on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).