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Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
3/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk50%
×Draw26%
Spartak Moscow 225%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.52
Spartak Moscow 2
0.99

Ska-khabarovsk creates 54% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
75%
Ska-khabarovsk or Spartak Moscow 2
74%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
50%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
25%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
78%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
45%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
20%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
63%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
26%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
67%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
50%
level
26%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
25%

Ska-khabarovsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 3–0 Spartak Moscow 2

Ska-khabarovsk beat Spartak Moscow 2 3-0 in First League on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.