Ska-khabarovsk 1–2 Rubin: Result & Stats

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rubin

10/9/2022

First League · Round 13Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk37%

×Draw31%

Rubin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchRubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.94

Ska-khabarovsk

1.04

Rubin

0.94

Ska-khabarovsk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 17 away

1.43

creates per match

1.06

0.81

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

Rubin

1.06

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.81

Rubin

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Rubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

68%

Ska-khabarovsk or Rubin

69%

Draw or Rubin

63%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

15%

Rubin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

65%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

28%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

9%

Rubin 1+ goals

61%

Rubin 2+ goals

24%

Rubin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

54%

Rubin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Rubin defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rubin attack 1.06 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

37%

level

31%

Rubin scores more

32%

Ska-khabarovsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff