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Ska-khabarovsk vs PFC Sochi — Cup 2019

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovskadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
3/14/2024CupCup · Regions Path - Quarter-finals - 1st RoundOlimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk38%
×Draw28%
PFC Sochi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.23
PFC Sochi
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.83
PFC Sochi
1.31

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.00
PFC Sochi
1.62

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
66%
Ska-khabarovsk or PFC Sochi
72%
Draw or PFC Sochi
62%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
16%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
71%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
35%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
13%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
69%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
32%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
52%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.83 + PFC Sochi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.23

PFC Sochi attack 1.31 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
38%
level
28%
PFC Sochi scores more
34%

Ska-khabarovsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs PFC Sochi

Ska-khabarovsk and PFC Sochi drew 1-1 in Cup on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.