Ska-Khabarovsk 2–2 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Ska-Khabarovsk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

PFC Sochi

9/8/2018

First League · Round 10Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk39%

×Draw28%

PFC Sochi33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-KhabarovskExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Ska-Khabarovsk

1.25

PFC Sochi

1.13

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 38 away

1.43

creates per match

1.45

0.81

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk

1.43

PFC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk

0.81

PFC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw

67%

Ska-Khabarovsk or PFC Sochi

72%

Draw or PFC Sochi

61%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+

17%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals

71%

Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals

36%

Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals

13%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

68%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

31%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)

54%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.43 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more

39%

level

28%

PFC Sochi scores more

33%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff