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Ska-khabarovsk vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
Preview
15:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
4/10/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina
40%
Ska-khabarovsk
model favours
40%30%31%

Ska-khabarovsk sit 17, Nizhny Novgorod 2 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk40%
×Draw30%
Nizhny Novgorod31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.15
Nizhny Novgorod
0.97

Ska-khabarovsk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.41
Nizhny Novgorod
1.00

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.93
Nizhny Novgorod
0.88

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
69%
Ska-khabarovsk or Nizhny Novgorod
70%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
60%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
17%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
68%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
32%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
11%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
62%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
25%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
57%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.41 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.00 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
40%
level
30%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
31%

Ska-khabarovsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk face Nizhny Novgorod (First League)

First League returns with Ska-khabarovsk hosting Nizhny Novgorod. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ska-khabarovsk host Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.