Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

M. Elmurzaev 82'

K. Bazelyuk 11' (pen)

3/15/2020

First League · Round 27Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk39%

×Draw29%

Nizhny Novgorod31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.00

Ska-khabarovsk

1.16

Nizhny Novgorod

1.00

Ska-khabarovsk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 53 away

1.43

creates per match

1.19

0.81

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

Nizhny Novgorod

1.19

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.81

Nizhny Novgorod

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

69%

Ska-khabarovsk or Nizhny Novgorod

71%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

61%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

17%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

69%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

32%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

11%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

63%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

26%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

56%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

39%

level

29%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

31%

Ska-khabarovsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

I. Kvekveskiri

11'

K. BazelyukPenalty

21'

N. Kalinski

23'

A. Sapeta

34'

P. Ignatovich

54'

S. Matviychuk← R. Manuylov

59'

V. Bragin← K. Bazelyuk

62'

R. Gadzhimuradov

64'

A. Stavpets← P. Ignatovich

65'

V. Grulev

67'

M. Gashchenkov

69'

V. Gorulev← M. Gashchenkov

72'

M. Palienko← P. Komolov

79'

K. Gotsuk

82'

S. Aliev← N. Kalinskiy

82'

M. Elmurzaev

85'

V. Kamilov← I. Kvekveskiri

86'

A. Maksimenko← V. Grulev

90+5'

I. Obukhov

Ska-khabarovsk

Nizhny

90

29

27

24

30

41

13

▼

Ignatovic

20

▼

Komolov

78

▼

Kalinskiy

19

Obolskiy

17

▼

96

3

15

27

▼

Manuylov

5

⚽

Elmurzaev

33

▼

Kvekveski

6

▼

8

70

37

71

⚽

▼

Bazelyuk

Manager: A. Poddubsky

54'▲S. Matviychuk←▼R. Manuylov

59'▲V. Bragin←▼K. Bazelyuk

69'▲V. Gorulev←▼M. Gashchenkov

85'▲V. Kamilov←▼I. Kvekveskiri

Ska-khabarovsk substitutes

90Matviychuk19Bragin98Gorulev21Kamilov1Soromytko11Kuzmichev14Sato34Vashchenko88Kyrnats97Trufanov

Manager: R. Evdokimov

64'▲A. Stavpets←▼P. Ignatovich

72'▲M. Palienko←▼P. Komolov

82'▲S. Aliev←▼N. Kalinskiy

86'▲A. Maksimenko←▼V. Grulev

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

61Stavpets10Palienko9Aliev7Maksimenko8Chudin58Zuev71Sagitov99Sysuev

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Nizhny Novgorod

Ska-khabarovsk beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 in First League on March 15, 2020.

Goals: K. Bazelyuk (11' pen), M. Elmurzaev (82').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.

Ska-khabarovsk vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Nizhny Novgorod