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Ska-Khabarovsk vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
8/4/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk51%
×Draw26%
Mordovia Saransk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.52
Mordovia Saransk
0.91

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 67% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.43
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.81
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
77%
Ska-Khabarovsk or Mordovia Saransk
74%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
49%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
26%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
78%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
45%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
20%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
60%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
23%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
69%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
51%
level
26%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
23%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ska-Khabarovsk 2–1 Mordovia Saransk

Ska-Khabarovsk beat Mordovia Saransk 2-1 in First League on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).