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Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Leningradets
Leningradets
T. Shipunov 41'
S. Aliev 4'
V. Mikushin 33'
10/28/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk48%
×Draw29%
Leningradets24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.30
Leningradets
0.82

Ska-khabarovsk creates 59% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Leningradets
0.83

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Leningradets
1.17

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Leningradets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
76%
Ska-khabarovsk or Leningradets
71%
Draw or Leningradets
52%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
22%
Leningradets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
73%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
37%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
14%
Leningradets 1+ goals
56%
Leningradets 2+ goals
20%
Leningradets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
67%
Leningradets (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Leningradets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Leningradets defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leningradets attack 0.83 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
48%
level
29%
Leningradets scores more
24%

Ska-khabarovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
S. Aliev
12'
I. Bulygin← R. Kudryavtsev
33'
V. Mikushin
41'
T. Shipunov
46'
D. Sokolov← I. Bulygin
46'
V. Zhironkin← N. Rozmanov
64'
D. Tsallagov← S. Aliev
70'
S. Iljin← K. Kolesnichenko
78'
A. Gongapshev← A. Nikitin
78'
I. Petrov← V. Podberezkin
87'
V. Sirotov← V. Kaptilov
90+2'
Daniil Kornyushin
90+1'
M. Kutovoy← A. Gongapshev

Statistics

Ska-khabarovskLeningradets
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets

Ska-khabarovsk beat Leningradets 2-1 in First League on October 28, 2023.

Goals: S. Aliev (4'), V. Mikushin (33'), T. Shipunov (41').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.