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Ska-Khabarovsk vs Khimki — First League 2018

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
4/24/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk41%
×Draw28%
Khimki31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.30
Khimki
1.10

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.43
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.81
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
69%
Ska-Khabarovsk or Khimki
72%
Draw or Khimki
59%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
19%
Khimki wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
73%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
37%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
14%
Khimki 1+ goals
67%
Khimki 2+ goals
30%
Khimki 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
57%
Khimki (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Khimki attack 1.39 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
41%
level
28%
Khimki scores more
31%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-Khabarovsk vs Khimki

Khimki beat Ska-Khabarovsk 1-0 in First League on April 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).