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Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
11/26/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Khimki50%
×Draw25%
Ska-khabarovsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.57
Ska-khabarovsk
1.01

Khimki creates 55% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 141 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06

allows per match

Khimki
0.96
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
76%
Khimki or Ska-khabarovsk
75%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
50%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
26%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
79%
Khimki 2+ goals
46%
Khimki 3+ goals
21%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
64%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
27%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
67%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.68 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.06 + Khimki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khimki scores more
50%
level
25%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
24%

Khimki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
A. Koryan← I. Berkovskiy
60'
M. Musalov← D. Kornyushin
67'
S. Aliev← J. Charles
67'
I. Petrov← A. Nikitin
72'
L. Skvortsov← P. Golubović
72'
T. Kasimov← B. Magomedov
73'
Artem Simonyan
79'
Timur Kasimov
85'
A. Mokhammad← D. Stepanov
86'
A. Savinov← V. Podberezkin
90+2'
Islam Imamov

Statistics

KhimkiSka-khabarovsk
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Khimki 0–0 Ska-khabarovsk

Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk drew 0-0 in First League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.