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Ska-khabarovsk vs Irtysh Omsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
6/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk35%
×Draw23%
Irtysh Omsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.57
Irtysh Omsk
1.73

Irtysh Omsk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.65
Irtysh Omsk
2.33

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.12
Irtysh Omsk
1.50

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
58%
Ska-khabarovsk or Irtysh Omsk
77%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
65%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
17%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
79%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
46%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
21%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
82%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
52%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
46%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.65 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Irtysh Omsk attack 2.33 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
35%
level
23%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
42%

Irtysh Omsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ska-khabarovsk 5–1 Irtysh Omsk

Ska-khabarovsk beat Irtysh Omsk 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2023.