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Ska-khabarovsk vs FC Sochi — First League 2024

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
Preview
15:00
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
5/1/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina
Big match
45%
Ska-khabarovsk
model favours
45%27%28%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk45%
×Draw27%
FC Sochi28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.40
FC Sochi
1.04

Ska-khabarovsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.47
FC Sochi
1.16

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.93
FC Sochi
1.32

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
72%
Ska-khabarovsk or FC Sochi
73%
Draw or FC Sochi
55%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
22%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
75%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
41%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
17%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
65%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
28%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
62%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.47 + FC Sochi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Sochi attack 1.16 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
45%
level
27%
FC Sochi scores more
28%

Ska-khabarovsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD
Sochi
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk vs FC Sochi — Match Preview

Ska-khabarovsk face FC Sochi on May 1, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ska-khabarovsk host FC Sochi at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.