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Ska-khabarovsk vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2026

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
5/2/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 40Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk60%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Bryansk15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Dinamo Bryansk
0.64

Ska-khabarovsk creates 144% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.42
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.80
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
85%
Ska-khabarovsk or Dinamo Bryansk
75%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
40%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
32%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
79%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
46%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
47%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
14%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
80%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 139 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.42 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
60%
level
25%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
15%

Ska-khabarovsk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Dinamo Bryansk

Ska-khabarovsk beat Dinamo Bryansk 1-0 in First League on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.