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Ska-Khabarovsk vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2026

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
P. Karasev 43'
3/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk49%
×Draw27%
Avangard Kursk24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.39
Avangard Kursk
0.89

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 56% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.43
Avangard Kursk
0.97

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.80
Avangard Kursk
1.34

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
76%
Ska-Khabarovsk or Avangard Kursk
73%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
51%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
23%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
75%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
40%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
16%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
59%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
22%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
67%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.80 · 141 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Avangard Kursk attack 0.97 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
49%
level
27%
Avangard Kursk scores more
24%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Ivan Khomukha
12'
Andrei Batyutin
14'
Kiril Gotsuk
43'
P. Karasev
67'
Alexander Troshechkin
72'
Dmitri Kayumov
80'
Vladislav Rudenko
90'
Mikhail Bagaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-Khabarovsk vs Avangard Kursk

Ska-Khabarovsk beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in First League on March 30, 2019.

Goals: P. Karasev (43').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).