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SKA Khabarovsk II vs Sakhalin — Second League - Group 3 2020

SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sakhalin
Sakhalin
9/8/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion SK Energya Khabarovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

SKA Khabarovsk II52%
×Draw24%
Sakhalin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.70
Sakhalin
1.09

SKA Khabarovsk II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 70 away

creates per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.54
Sakhalin
0.77

allows per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.41
Sakhalin
1.86

finishing

SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par
Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Khabarovsk II ↓

Sakhalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SKA Khabarovsk II or draw
76%
SKA Khabarovsk II or Sakhalin
76%
Draw or Sakhalin
48%

Winning margin

SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
28%
Sakhalin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
82%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
51%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
24%
Sakhalin 1+ goals
66%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
30%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
68%
Sakhalin (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Khabarovsk II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 79 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.54 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
52%
level
24%
Sakhalin scores more
24%

SKA Khabarovsk II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SKA Khabarovsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Khabarovsk II vs Sakhalin

SKA Khabarovsk II and Sakhalin drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Energya Khabarovsk in Khabarovsk.