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SKA Khabarovsk II vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
10/25/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SKA Khabarovsk II62%
×Draw20%
Metallurg Vidnoye18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Khabarovsk II
2.21
Metallurg Vidnoye
1.09

SKA Khabarovsk II creates 103% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 30 away

creates per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.54
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.41
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Khabarovsk II ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SKA Khabarovsk II or draw
82%
SKA Khabarovsk II or Metallurg Vidnoye
80%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
38%

Winning margin

SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
39%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
89%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
65%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
38%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
66%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
30%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
78%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Khabarovsk II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 79 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.54 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.21

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
62%
level
20%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
18%

SKA Khabarovsk II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SKA Khabarovsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Khabarovsk II vs Metallurg Vidnoye

SKA Khabarovsk II beat Metallurg Vidnoye 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on October 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.