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SKA Khabarovsk II vs Balashikha — Second League - Group 3 2020

SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Balashikha
Balashikha
9/10/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SKA Khabarovsk II60%
×Draw22%
Balashikha18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.89
Balashikha
0.94

SKA Khabarovsk II creates 101% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.54
Balashikha
0.47

allows per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.41
Balashikha
2.24

finishing

SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par
Balashikha+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Khabarovsk II ↓

Balashikha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SKA Khabarovsk II or draw
82%
SKA Khabarovsk II or Balashikha
78%
Draw or Balashikha
40%

Winning margin

SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
35%
Balashikha wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
85%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
56%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
29%
Balashikha 1+ goals
61%
Balashikha 2+ goals
24%
Balashikha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
76%
Balashikha (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Khabarovsk II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 79 matches

Balashikha away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.54 + Balashikha defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Balashikha attack 0.47 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
60%
level
22%
Balashikha scores more
18%

SKA Khabarovsk II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SKA Khabarovsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Khabarovsk II vs Balashikha

Balashikha beat SKA Khabarovsk II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.