Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SKA Brasil U20 vs Metropolitano FC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

SKA Brasil U20
SKA Brasil U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Metropolitano FC U20
Metropolitano FC U20
Joao Vitor 45+2'
L. T. Henrique 33'
L. Siqueira 9'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SKA Brasil U2073%
×Draw17%
Metropolitano FC U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Brasil U20
2.30
Metropolitano FC U20
0.70

SKA Brasil U20 creates 229% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

SKA Brasil U20
1.60
Metropolitano FC U20
0.80

allows per match

SKA Brasil U20
0.60
Metropolitano FC U20
3.00

finishing

SKA Brasil U20+0.00on par
Metropolitano FC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Brasil U20 ↓

Metropolitano FC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SKA Brasil U20 or draw
90%
SKA Brasil U20 or Metropolitano FC U20
83%
Draw or Metropolitano FC U20
27%

Winning margin

SKA Brasil U20 wins by 2+
49%
Metropolitano FC U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

SKA Brasil U20 1+ goals
90%
SKA Brasil U20 2+ goals
67%
SKA Brasil U20 3+ goals
40%
Metropolitano FC U20 1+ goals
50%
Metropolitano FC U20 2+ goals
16%
Metropolitano FC U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

SKA Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
88%
Metropolitano FC U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Metropolitano FC U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Brasil U20 attack 1.60 + Metropolitano FC U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Metropolitano FC U20 attack 0.80 + SKA Brasil U20 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

SKA Brasil U20 scores more
73%
level
17%
Metropolitano FC U20 scores more
10%

SKA Brasil U20 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "SKA Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Siqueira
33'
L. T. Henrique
45+2'
Joao Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Brasil U20 vs Metropolitano FC U20

SKA Brasil U20 beat Metropolitano FC U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: L. Siqueira (9'), L. T. Henrique (33'), Joao Vitor (45+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba in Santana de Parnaíba, São Paulo.