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SKA Brasil U20 vs Capivariano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

SKA Brasil U20
SKA Brasil U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
J. Costa 75'
L. Andrade 52'
A. Silva 4' (pen)
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SKA Brasil U2050%
×Draw26%
Capivariano U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Brasil U20
1.50
Capivariano U20
0.95

SKA Brasil U20 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

SKA Brasil U20
1.60
Capivariano U20
1.29

allows per match

SKA Brasil U20
0.60
Capivariano U20
1.41

finishing

SKA Brasil U20+0.00on par
Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Brasil U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SKA Brasil U20 or draw
76%
SKA Brasil U20 or Capivariano U20
74%
Draw or Capivariano U20
50%

Winning margin

SKA Brasil U20 wins by 2+
25%
Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SKA Brasil U20 1+ goals
78%
SKA Brasil U20 2+ goals
44%
SKA Brasil U20 3+ goals
19%
Capivariano U20 1+ goals
61%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
25%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SKA Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Brasil U20 attack 1.60 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + SKA Brasil U20 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SKA Brasil U20 scores more
50%
level
26%
Capivariano U20 scores more
24%

SKA Brasil U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SKA Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. SilvaPenalty
52'
L. Andrade
75'
J. Costa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Brasil U20 vs Capivariano U20

SKA Brasil U20 beat Capivariano U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: A. Silva (4' pen), L. Andrade (52'), J. Costa (75').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba in Santana de Parnaíba, São Paulo.