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SK Poltava vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

SK Poltava
SK Poltava
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
5/11/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Championship Round - 8Stadion Molodizhnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SK Poltava37%
×Draw27%
Nyva Buzova36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Poltava
1.27
Nyva Buzova
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 14 away

creates per match

SK Poltava
1.54
Nyva Buzova
1.21

allows per match

SK Poltava
1.24
Nyva Buzova
1.00

finishing

SK Poltava+0.00on par
Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Poltava ↓

Nyva Buzova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SK Poltava or draw
64%
SK Poltava or Nyva Buzova
73%
Draw or Nyva Buzova
63%

Winning margin

SK Poltava wins by 2+
16%
Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SK Poltava 1+ goals
72%
SK Poltava 2+ goals
36%
SK Poltava 3+ goals
14%
Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
71%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
35%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SK Poltava (draw refunded)
51%
Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Poltava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Poltava attack 1.54 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + SK Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SK Poltava scores more
37%
level
27%
Nyva Buzova scores more
36%

SK Poltava at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SK Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: SK Poltava 2–3 Nyva Buzova

Nyva Buzova beat SK Poltava 3-2 in Persha Liga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Molodizhnyy in Poltava.