SK Poltava 2–3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi: Result & Stats

SK Poltava

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Y. Streltsov 62'

M. Marusych 50'

D. Kravchuk 81'

H. Savchuk 76'

A. Bezhenar 41'

4/11/2025

Persha Liga · Championship Round - 2Stadion Molodizhnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SK Poltava36%

×Draw28%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SK PoltavaExpected goals in this matchEpitsentr Dunayivtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.16

SK Poltava

1.18

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

1.54

creates per match

1.08

1.24

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

SK Poltava

1.54

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.08

allows per match

SK Poltava

1.24

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SK Poltava+0.00on par

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Poltava ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

SK Poltava or draw

65%

SK Poltava or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

72%

Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

64%

Winning margin

SK Poltava wins by 2+

15%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SK Poltava 1+ goals

69%

SK Poltava 2+ goals

33%

SK Poltava 3+ goals

12%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

69%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

32%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SK Poltava (draw refunded)

51%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Poltava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Poltava attack 1.54 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + SK Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

SK Poltava scores more

36%

level

28%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

35%

SK Poltava at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "SK Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

D. Kravchuk

41'

A. Bezhenar

46'

Y. Streltsov← S. Shapovalov

46'

H. Savchuk← V. Tanchyk

50'

53'

62'

64'

66'

A. Liashenko← I. Bendera

66'

M. Protsiv← Y. Zaporozhets

66'

Y. Demchenko← S. Krystin

73'

V. Moroz

76'

H. Savchuk

77'

B. Shmyhelskyi← M. Marusych

77'

Y. Opanasenko← V. Odariuk

81'

D. Kravchuk

82'

I. Kotsyumaka

82'

Y. Streltsov

89'

B. Shmygelskyi

90+3'

M. Poliuliakh← A. Bezhenar

SK

Epitsentr

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Marusych

Shcherbak

Manager: V. Sysenko

46'▲Y. Streltsov←▼S. Shapovalov

77'▲B. Shmyhelskyi←▼M. Marusych

77'▲Y. Opanasenko←▼V. Odariuk

SK Poltava substitutes

StreltsovShmyhelskyiOpanasenkoSavenkovVasetskyiProkopenkoTymenkoShevchenko

Manager: S. Nahorniak

46'▲H. Savchuk←▼V. Tanchyk

66'▲A. Liashenko←▼I. Bendera

66'▲M. Protsiv←▼Y. Zaporozhets

66'▲Y. Demchenko←▼S. Krystin

90+3'▲M. Poliuliakh←▼A. Bezhenar

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi substitutes

SavchukLiashenkoProtsivDemchenkoPoliuliakhBushniakZhmuidaZhmurkoKrystin

Persha Liga: SK Poltava 2–3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat SK Poltava 3-2 in Persha Liga on April 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Bezhenar (41'), M. Marusych (50'), Y. Streltsov (62'), H. Savchuk (76'), D. Kravchuk (81').

The match was played at Stadion Molodizhnyy in Poltava.

SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: SK Poltava 2–3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi