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SK Beveren vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018

SK Beveren
SK Beveren
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
J. Schryvers 59'
S. Bastien 70'
S. Amallah 67'
8/17/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 2Freethielstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

SK Beveren31%
×Draw24%
Standard Liege44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Beveren
1.33
Standard Liege
1.62

Standard Liege creates 22% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 151 away

creates per match

SK Beveren
1.11
Standard Liege
1.18

allows per match

SK Beveren
2.06
Standard Liege
1.56

finishing

SK Beveren+0.00on par
Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Beveren ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SK Beveren or draw
56%
SK Beveren or Standard Liege
76%
Draw or Standard Liege
69%

Winning margin

SK Beveren wins by 2+
14%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SK Beveren 1+ goals
74%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
38%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
15%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
80%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
48%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SK Beveren (draw refunded)
42%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Beveren at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 47 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Beveren attack 1.11 + Standard Liege defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Standard Liege attack 1.18 + SK Beveren defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SK Beveren scores more
31%
level
24%
Standard Liege scores more
44%

Standard Liege at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
A. Koita← J. Efford
16'
Samuel Bastien
20'
Nicolas Raskin
27'
Djihad Bizimana
40'
Konstantinos Laifis
59'
J. Schryvers↳ A. Albanese
60'
A. Boljević← E. Shamir
65'
Jenthe Mertens
67'
S. Amallah↳ C. Fai
70'
S. Bastien↳ F. Avenatti
73'
D. Foulon← A. Albanese
75'
S. Milošević← D. Bizimana
77'
G. Cimirot← M. Lestienne
87'
M. Bokadi← S. Bastien
90'
Maximiliano Caufriez

Possession

38%SK

Shots

5SK

Statistics

SKStandard
Overview
38%Possession62%
5Total Shots14
4Corners8
18Fouls19
Shots
5Total Shots14
3On Target8
2Off Target6
Passing
38%Possession62%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls19
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: SK Beveren 1–2 Standard Liege

Standard Liege beat SK Beveren 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on August 17, 2020.

Goals: J. Schryvers (59'), S. Amallah (67'), S. Bastien (70').

Standard Liege controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Freethielstadion in Beveren.