SK Beveren 0–0 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

SK Beveren

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Standard Liege

8/3/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 2Freethiel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

SK Beveren31%

×Draw24%

Standard Liege44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SK BeverenExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.64

SK Beveren

1.34

Standard Liege

1.64

Standard Liege creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 152 away

1.13

creates per match

1.19

2.08

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

SK Beveren

1.13

Standard Liege

1.19

allows per match

SK Beveren

2.08

Standard Liege

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SK Beveren+0.00on par

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Beveren ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SK Beveren or draw

56%

SK Beveren or Standard Liege

76%

Draw or Standard Liege

69%

Winning margin

SK Beveren wins by 2+

14%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

SK Beveren 1+ goals

74%

SK Beveren 2+ goals

39%

SK Beveren 3+ goals

15%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

81%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

49%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SK Beveren (draw refunded)

41%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Beveren at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Beveren attack 1.13 + Standard Liege defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Standard Liege attack 1.19 + SK Beveren defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SK Beveren scores more

31%

level

24%

Standard Liege scores more

44%

Standard Liege at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Joachim Van Damme

66'

Mouhamadou Ndao← Francesco Forte

66'

Mehdi Carcela-González← Moussa Djenepo

72'

Nana Opoku Ampomah← Beni Badibanga

74'

Aleksandar Vukotić

81'

Duje Čop← Samuel Bastien

87'

Rafidine Abdullah← Floriano Vanzo

89'

Mehdi Carcela-González

Statistics

SKStandard

Overview

3Corners10

Discipline

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1