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SK Beveren vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2018

SK Beveren
SK Beveren
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
8/29/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 4Freethielstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

SK Beveren34%
×Draw24%
OH Leuven42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Beveren
1.44
OH Leuven
1.61

OH Leuven creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 111 away

creates per match

SK Beveren
1.11
OH Leuven
1.17

allows per match

SK Beveren
2.06
OH Leuven
1.77

finishing

SK Beveren+0.00on par
OH Leuven+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Beveren ↓

OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SK Beveren or draw
58%
SK Beveren or OH Leuven
76%
Draw or OH Leuven
66%

Winning margin

SK Beveren wins by 2+
16%
OH Leuven wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SK Beveren 1+ goals
76%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
42%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
18%
OH Leuven 1+ goals
80%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
48%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SK Beveren (draw refunded)
45%
OH Leuven (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Beveren at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 47 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Beveren attack 1.11 + OH Leuven defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

OH Leuven attack 1.17 + SK Beveren defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SK Beveren scores more
34%
level
24%
OH Leuven scores more
42%

OH Leuven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: SK Beveren 1–3 OH Leuven

OH Leuven beat SK Beveren 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Freethielstadion in Beveren.