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SK Beveren vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League 2018

SK Beveren
SK Beveren
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Charleroi
Charleroi
D. Henen 81'
S. Nicholson 59'
M. Bruno 52'
R. Morioka 37'
8/31/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 6Freethiel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

SK Beveren30%
×Draw24%
Charleroi47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Beveren
1.31
Charleroi
1.70

Charleroi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 143 away

creates per match

SK Beveren
1.11
Charleroi
1.34

allows per match

SK Beveren
2.06
Charleroi
1.50

finishing

SK Beveren+0.00on par
Charleroi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Beveren ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SK Beveren or draw
53%
SK Beveren or Charleroi
76%
Draw or Charleroi
70%

Winning margin

SK Beveren wins by 2+
13%
Charleroi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

SK Beveren 1+ goals
73%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
38%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
14%
Charleroi 1+ goals
82%
Charleroi 2+ goals
51%
Charleroi 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SK Beveren (draw refunded)
39%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Beveren at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 47 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Beveren attack 1.11 + Charleroi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Charleroi attack 1.34 + SK Beveren defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SK Beveren scores more
30%
level
24%
Charleroi scores more
47%

Charleroi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
R. Morioka↳ Nurio Fortuna
52'
M. Bruno↳ M. Fall
59'
S. Nicholson↳ R. Morioka
60'
S. Milošević← X. Emmers
69'
T. Agyepong← T. Dierckx
70'
K. Rezaei← R. Morioka
76'
D. Henen← M. Fall
81'
D. Henen↳ K. Rezaei
86'
D. Bizimana← D. Heymans
89'
G. Hendrickx← M. Bruno
90'
Aleksandar Vukotić

Possession

53%SK

Shots

6SK

Statistics

SKCharleroi
Overview
53%Possession47%
6Total Shots6
7Corners4
18Fouls13
Shots
6Total Shots6
2On Target5
4Off Target1
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: SK Beveren vs Charleroi

Charleroi beat SK Beveren 4-0 in Jupiler Pro League on August 31, 2019.

Goals: R. Morioka (37'), M. Bruno (52'), S. Nicholson (59'), D. Henen (81').

SK Beveren controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Freethiel Stadion in Beveren.