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SJK vs PEPO — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK
SJKadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
PEPO
PEPO
5/12/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 32OmaSp Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SJK32%
×Draw19%
PEPO49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.98
PEPO
2.46

PEPO creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

SJK
2.29
PEPO
3.42

allows per match

SJK
1.50
PEPO
1.67

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

SJK or draw
51%
SJK or PEPO
81%
Draw or PEPO
68%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
16%
PEPO wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
86%
SJK 2+ goals
59%
SJK 3+ goals
31%
PEPO 1+ goals
91%
PEPO 2+ goals
70%
PEPO 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
39%
PEPO (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

PEPO away — creates 3.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 2.29 + PEPO defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

PEPO attack 3.42 + SJK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SJK scores more
32%
level
19%
PEPO scores more
49%

PEPO at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: SJK 3–0 PEPO

SJK beat PEPO 3-0 in Suomen Cup on May 12, 2026.

The match was played at OmaSp Stadion in Seinajoki.