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SJK vs KPV-j — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SJK
SJK
FT
2 – 0
KPV-j
KPV-j
3/6/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wallsport Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SJK83%
×Draw14%
KPV-j3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
2.25
KPV-j
0.28

SJK creates 704% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

SJK
1.82
KPV-j
0.00

allows per match

SJK
0.55
KPV-j
2.67

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

KPV-j →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SJK or draw
97%
SJK or KPV-j
86%
Draw or KPV-j
17%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
58%
KPV-j wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
89%
SJK 2+ goals
65%
SJK 3+ goals
39%
KPV-j 1+ goals
24%
KPV-j 2+ goals
3%
KPV-j 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
96%
KPV-j (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

KPV-j away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.82 + KPV-j defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

KPV-j attack 0.00 + SJK defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

SJK scores more
83%
level
14%
KPV-j scores more
3%

SJK at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SJK 2–0 KPV-j

SJK beat KPV-j 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Wallsport Areena in Seinäjoki.