SJK 1–2 Honka: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

SJK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Honka

J. Dunwoody 48'

J. Wurtz 38', 30'

9/16/2023

Veikkausliiga · Championship Round - 1OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

SJK37%

×Draw26%

Honka36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJKExpected goals in this matchHonka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

SJK

1.31

Honka

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 82 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.28

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

SJK

1.50

Honka

1.29

allows per match

SJK

1.28

Honka

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK+0.00on par

Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

Honka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SJK or draw

64%

SJK or Honka

74%

Draw or Honka

63%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+

17%

Honka wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals

73%

SJK 2+ goals

38%

SJK 3+ goals

14%

Honka 1+ goals

72%

Honka 2+ goals

37%

Honka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)

51%

Honka (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

Honka away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.50 + Honka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Honka attack 1.29 + SJK defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SJK scores more

37%

level

26%

Honka scores more

36%

SJK at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

30'

38'

46'

46'

O. Kemppainen← P. Hannola

48'

J. Dunwoody↳ Murilo

60'

L. Laine← Clésio

73'

76'

77'

79'

89'

H. Aalto← M. Rale

Shots

Statistics

SJKHonka

Overview

13Total Shots6

7Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots6

5On Target5

7Off Target0

1Blocked1

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Veikkausliiga: SJK 1–2 Honka

Honka beat SJK 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on September 16, 2023.

Goals: J. Wurtz (30', 38'), J. Dunwoody (48').

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.

SJK vs Honka — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Veikkausliiga: SJK 1–2 Honka