SJK 2–2 Haka: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

SJK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Haka

K. Paananen 88'

B. Fati 35'

A. Olusanya 90+3'

I. Lanquedoc 90+1'

11/2/2024

Veikkausliiga · Conference League Play-offs - FinalOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

SJK44%

×Draw25%

Haka31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJKExpected goals in this matchHaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.27

SJK

1.56

Haka

1.27

SJK creates 23% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 85 away

1.50

creates per match

1.25

1.28

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

SJK

1.50

Haka

1.25

allows per match

SJK

1.28

Haka

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK+0.00on par

Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

Haka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SJK or draw

69%

SJK or Haka

75%

Draw or Haka

56%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+

22%

Haka wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals

79%

SJK 2+ goals

46%

SJK 3+ goals

21%

Haka 1+ goals

72%

Haka 2+ goals

36%

Haka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)

59%

Haka (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

Haka away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.50 + Haka defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Haka attack 1.25 + SJK defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SJK scores more

44%

level

25%

Haka scores more

31%

SJK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

B. Fati

35'

B. Fati↳ J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

46'

N. Talo← E. Patoulidis

54'

K. Pires

58'

T. Siira

63'

L. Laine← E. Mommo

63'

T. Kaukua← K. Paananen

67'

J. J. Moreno Ciorciari← J. Streng

67'

B. Fati← L. Strapp

71'

J. Streng

76'

H. Ndam

80'

B. Reemst← M. Bacanin

83'

P. Hannola← O. Kemppainen

88'

K. Paananen↳ J. Streng

89'

T. Siira← O. Whyte

90+1'

I. Lanquedoc

90+3'

A. Olusanya↳ Dantas

SJK4-5-1

Haka4-3-3

17

Sejdiu

27

⚽

Olusanya

11

⚽

19

8

23

2

5

A

4

21

12

1

3

⚽

17

44

4

14

8

10

18

19

9

A

Moreno

Manager: S. Grieve

63'▲L. Laine←▼E. Mommo

63'▲T. Kaukua←▼K. Paananen

67'▲J. J. Moreno Ciorciari←▼J. Streng

67'▲B. Fati←▼L. Strapp

83'▲P. Hannola←▼O. Kemppainen

SJK substitutes

11Mömmö37Paananen20Strapp29Streng16Kemppainen34Lahti7Karjalainen

Manager: A. Smith

46'▲N. Talo←▼E. Patoulidis

80'▲B. Reemst←▼M. Bacanin

89'▲T. Siira←▼O. Whyte

Haka substitutes

10Patoulidis9Bačanin77Whyte32Heino20Nikki15Lehtomäki25Makela

SJK 2 – 2 Haka

SJK and Haka drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on November 2, 2024.

Goals: B. Fati (35'), K. Paananen (88'), I. Lanquedoc (90+1'), A. Olusanya (90+3').

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.

SJK vs Haka — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

SJK 2 – 2 Haka