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SJK vs FF Jaro — Veikkausliiga 2026

SJK
SJK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FF Jaro
FF Jaro
6/14/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 10OmaSp Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

SJK50%
×Draw24%
FF Jaro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.69
FF Jaro
1.14

SJK creates 48% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 23 away

creates per match

SJK
1.50
FF Jaro
1.00

allows per match

SJK
1.28
FF Jaro
1.87

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SJK or draw
74%
SJK or FF Jaro
76%
Draw or FF Jaro
50%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
27%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
82%
SJK 2+ goals
50%
SJK 3+ goals
24%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
68%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
32%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
66%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 121 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.50 + FF Jaro defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

FF Jaro attack 1.00 + SJK defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SJK scores more
50%
level
24%
FF Jaro scores more
26%

SJK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SJK 3 – 1 FF Jaro

SJK beat FF Jaro 3-1 in Veikkausliiga on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at OmaSp Stadion in Seinajoki.