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SJK vs Atlantis — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK
SJK
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Atlantis
Atlantis
5/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SJK21%
×Draw17%
Atlantis63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.75
Atlantis
3.05

Atlantis creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

SJK
2.29
Atlantis
4.60

allows per match

SJK
1.50
Atlantis
1.20

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
Atlantis+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

Atlantis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

SJK or draw
37%
SJK or Atlantis
83%
Draw or Atlantis
79%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
9%
Atlantis wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
83%
SJK 2+ goals
52%
SJK 3+ goals
25%
Atlantis 1+ goals
95%
Atlantis 2+ goals
80%
Atlantis 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
25%
Atlantis (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Atlantis away — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 2.29 + Atlantis defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Atlantis attack 4.60 + SJK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SJK scores more
21%
level
17%
Atlantis scores more
63%

Atlantis at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlantis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SJK 3 – 2 Atlantis

SJK beat Atlantis 3-2 in Suomen Cup on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.