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SJK-j vs SJK Akatemia — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK-j
SJK-j
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
4/16/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SJK-j24%
×Draw19%
SJK Akatemia57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK-j
1.59
SJK Akatemia
2.48

SJK Akatemia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

SJK-j
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.36

allows per match

SJK-j
2.60
SJK Akatemia
1.18

finishing

SJK-j+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK-j ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

SJK-j or draw
43%
SJK-j or SJK Akatemia
81%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
76%

Winning margin

SJK-j wins by 2+
11%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

SJK-j 1+ goals
80%
SJK-j 2+ goals
47%
SJK-j 3+ goals
21%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
92%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
70%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

SJK-j (draw refunded)
30%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK-j at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK-j attack 2.00 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

SJK Akatemia attack 2.36 + SJK-j defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SJK-j scores more
24%
level
19%
SJK Akatemia scores more
57%

SJK Akatemia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: SJK-j 0–3 SJK Akatemia

SJK Akatemia beat SJK-j 3-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.