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SJK-j vs KePS — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK-j
SJK-j
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
KePS
KePS
5/6/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SJK-j35%
×Draw21%
KePS44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK-j
1.79
KePS
2.02

KePS creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

SJK-j
2.00
KePS
1.43

allows per match

SJK-j
2.60
KePS
1.57

finishing

SJK-j+0.00on par
KePS+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK-j ↓

KePS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SJK-j or draw
56%
SJK-j or KePS
79%
Draw or KePS
65%

Winning margin

SJK-j wins by 2+
18%
KePS wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SJK-j 1+ goals
83%
SJK-j 2+ goals
53%
SJK-j 3+ goals
26%
KePS 1+ goals
87%
KePS 2+ goals
60%
KePS 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

SJK-j (draw refunded)
44%
KePS (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK-j at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

KePS away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK-j attack 2.00 + KePS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

KePS attack 1.43 + SJK-j defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SJK-j scores more
35%
level
21%
KePS scores more
44%

KePS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KePS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SJK-j 1 – 3 KePS

KePS beat SJK-j 3-1 in Suomen Cup on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.